Modeling Contextual Determinants of HIV/AIDS Prevalence in South Africa to Inform Policy

Oumar Bouare

Abstract

There is a voluminous literature on HIV/AIDS and South Africa. However, no study focuses on the modeling of contextual factors concerning HIV/AIDS prevalence in South Africa. In this paper, two models of contextual behavioral risk factors of HIV/AIDS prevalence were developed so that policy makers can be alerted to the key variables in order to help curb the spread of the disease. It was found that fearlessness/low-perception, poverty and hopelessness risks are determinants of an active risk factor. While the latter and passive risk factor (i.e. gender dependency) are the determinants of HIV/AIDS prevalence. As a result, it was argued to go beyond the KABP determinant studies to focus on contextual behavioral risk factors and pointed out that further research is needed on the limit of contextuality of risk factors. In conclusion, policies were suggested to help curb the spread of HIV/AIDS (Afr J Reprod Health 2009; 13[3]:53-69).

 

RĖSUMĖ

Modélant les déterminants contextuels de la prévalence du VIH/SIDA en Afrique du Sud pour informer la politique. Il existe un gros volume de documentation sur le VIH/SIDA et l’Afrique du Sud.  Toutefois, il n’y a pas d’étude consacrée à la modélisation des facteurs contextuels concernant la prévalence du VIH/SIDA en Afrique du Sud.  Dans cet article, nous avons élaboré deux modèles des facteurs de risque contextuel du comportement de la prévalence du VIH/SIDA afin d’avertir les décisionnaires sur les variables clé pour aider à réduire la propagation de la maladie.  On a trouvé que l’intrépidité/la faible perception, la pauvreté et des risques de désespoir sont les déterminants d’un facteur de risque actif.  Alors que le second et le facteur de risque (c’est-a-dire la dépendance du genre) sont les déterminants de la prévalence du VIH/SIDA.  En conséquence, nous avons proposé qu’il faut dépasser les études des déterminants selon KABP pour mettre l’accent sur les facteurs de risque  contextuel du comportement; nous avons indiqué qu’il faut des recherches supplémentaires sur la limite de la contextualité de facteurs de risque.  En conclusion, nous avons suggéré des politiques qui permettront d’aider à la réduction de la propagation du VIH/SIDA (Afr J Reprod Health 2009; 13[3]:53-69).

 

KEYWORDS: HIV/AIDS; determinants; contextual behavioral risk factors; contextual non-behavioral risk factors

 

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